Analisis Determinan Tabungan di Indonesia: Suatu Aplikasi Teori Life Cycle Hypothesis
Keywords:
Life Cycle Hypothesis, Saving, Partial Adjustment ModelAbstract
The role of savings in an economy is very important, an increase in savings will increase investment and economic growth. This study aims to determine how per capita income, the number of productive age population, and interest rates affect savings in Indonesia using the Life Cycle Hypothesis (LCH) theoretical framework. Using the Partial Adjustment Model (PAM) analysis technique with an observation period of 1991-2023, this study provides results that the per capita income variable is proven to have a positive and significant effect, as well as the interest rate variable is proven to have a negative and significant effect. While the variable number of productive age population is proven to have no effect. This indicates that the Life Cycle Hypothesis (LCH) theory has not been proven to apply in Indonesia. This is thought to be due to the high age dependency ratio in Indonesia. The policy implications of the findings in this study are in an effort to encourage national savings in addition to policies that increase per capita income, also with policies that can reduce the age dependency ratio for example by optimizing the old age security program by requiring all companies to include their employees in the old age security program. In addition, the finding that interest rates have a negative effect on savings, which is thought to be a response to rising inflation, means that the inflation targeting monetary policy currently implemented by Bank Indonesia is the right policy in an effort to encourage national savings
Downloads
References
Achmad Nur Sutikno. (2020). Bonus Demografi Di Indonesia. VISIONER?: Jurnal Pemerintahan Daerah Di Indonesia, 12(2), 421–439. https://doi.org/10.54783/jv.v12i2.285
Astuty, S., Hastuti, D. R. D., Kamaruddin, C. A., & Tahir, M. I. T. (2022). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Tabungan di Indonesia. Journal of Economic Education and Entrepreneurship Studies, 3(2), 335–343. https://doi.org/10.26858/je3s.v3i2.109
Ataza, C., Porcel, M., Resabal, L., Sandoval, A., & Bragas, C. (2024). The Impact Of Psychological, Economic, Social Aspects, And Interest Rate Variations On Working Millennials’ Saving Patterns Through Digital Banking. Sachetas, 3(3), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.55955/330001
Begum, H. (2021). An Empirical Analysis on Interest Rate and Gross Saving in Bangladesh. Global Journal of Human-Social Science, 21(E4), 31–41. https://gjhss.com/index.php/gjhss/article/view/1183
Braun, R. A., Ikeda, D., & Joines, D. H. (2009). The Saving Rate In Japan: Why It Has Fallen And Why It Will Remain Low. International Economic Review, 50(1), 291–321. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2008.00531.x
Curtis, C. C., Lugauer, S., & Mark, N. C. (2015). Demographic patterns and household saving in China. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(2), 58–94. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20130105
Emara, N., & Kasa, H. (2021). The non-linear relationship between financial access and domestic savings: the case of emerging markets. Applied Economics, 53(3), 345–363. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1808174
Grigoli, F., Herman, A., & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2018). Saving in the world. World Development, 104, 257–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.022
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.).
Handriyani, R., Hasibuan, S. J., & Munthe, H. (2023). The Impact of Interest Rates and Inflation Rates on Increasing the Number of Customers Saving. Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis & Entrepreneurship, 17(2), 531–540. https://doi.org/10.55208/cde4bt74
He, H., Ning, L., & Zhu, D. (2019). The Impact of Rapid Aging and Pension Reform on Savings and the Labor Supply. IMF Working Papers, 19(61), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498302890.001
Hermawan, A. S., Sijabat, S., Bakara, D. O. E., & Abdurrahman, D. M. B. (2023). Tantangan Dan Peluang Dalam Sistem Jaminan Sosial: Analisis Perbandingan Konsep Pembiayaan Dan Menajemen Jaminan Sosial Di Indonesia Dan Singapura. Diponegoro Private Law Review, 9(1), 88–104. https://ejournal2.undip.ac.id/index.php/dplr/article/view/18547
Jumhur, & Indah, D. N. K. (2018). Struktur Usia Penduduk Dan Implikasinya Terhadap Tabungan Di Indonesia. SATIESP, 76–93.
Latsos, S., & Schnabl, G. (2021). Determinants of Japanese Household Saving Behavior in the Low-Interest Rate Environment. The Economists’ Voice, 18(1), 81–99. https://doi.org/10.1515/ev-2021-0005
Lubis, D. N., Panjaitan, G., Lumbantoruan, E. F., Nababan, G., Tobing, M. G. L., & Siallagan, C. H. H. (2024). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tabungan di Indonesia Tahun 1990 Hingga 2020. Jurnal Widya, 5(1), 311–321. https://jurnal.amikwidyaloka.ac.id/index.php/awl
Mankiw, N. G. (2010). Macroeconomics (7th ed.). Worth Publishers. http://www.worthpublishers.com/mankiw
Musamali, R., Mutia, C., & Ngugi, R. W. (2022). The determinants of domestic saving in Kenya (WIDER Working Paper, Vol. 2022). UNU-WIDER. https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/265-2
Nuryani, A., & Julia, A. (2022). Proyeksi Ketercapaian Bonus Demografi di Indonesia Tahun 2035. Bandung Conference Series: Economics Studies, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.29313/bcses.v2i2.3211
Pratiwi, N. I., & Rozani, A. (2024). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Jumlah Tabungan Di Indonesia. Journal of Economic Development, 2(2), 116–129. https://ecodev.bunghatta.ac.id/index.php/ecodev/article/view/91
Rando, S. S. J., Rotinsulu, D. C., & Rorong, I. P. F. (2021). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Penentu Inflasi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Pembangunan Ekonomi Dan Keuangan Daerah, 22(1).
Sahudin, Z., Ridzuan, A. R., Razak, M. I. M., & Bahrudin, N. Z. (2024). Determinants of Household Savings. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 11(2.2), 347–362. https://doi.org/10.14738/assrj.112.2.16422
Saraswati, B. D., Maski, G., Kaluge, D., & Sakti, R. K. (2022). The Impact Of Financial Technology On Consumption Function Of The Theory Of Absolute Income Hypothesis: A Partial Adjustment Model Approach (The Indonesian Evidence). Business: Theory and Practice, 23(1), 109–116. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2022.10789
Silvia, E. D., & Susanti, R. (2019). Analisis Konsumsi dan Tabungan Masyarakat di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Dharma AndalasDharma Andalas, 21(2), 154–164.
Suparmono. (2018). Pengantar Ekonomi Makro (2nd ed.).
Susanthi, P. R., Hazriyanto, & Firdiyansyah, I. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Pendapatan Terhadap Perilaku Konsumsi Dan Tabungan Mahasiswa Stie Galileo Di Kota Batam. Jurnal Rekaman, 4(1). https://ojs.jurnalrekaman.com/index.php/rekaman/article/view/42
’Ula, T., Alfian, & Annisa, F. (2022). Implikasi Fluktuasi Impor, Uang Beredar, Tabungan, Dan Modal Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Investasi Islam, 7(2), 125–141. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32505/jii.v7i2.5073
Yusa, I. G. P. D. (2024). Menakar Peluang Bonus Demografi Kedua Indonesia: Pendekatan Daya Dukung Ekonomi dan Kekayaan Pensiun. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2024(1), 259–268. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2146
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 JURNAL TRANSFORMATIF UNKRISWINA SUMBA
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
